Climate Change/Global Warming
There is now strong consensus among scientists that significant global warming is occurring and that most of it can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2007). The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures, subsurface ocean temperatures, increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many other physical and biological systems. This warming has already led to changes in the Earth's climate.
Carbon dioxide levels have increased from 280 parts per million (ppm) in 1750 to over 375 ppm today – higher than any previous levels that can be reliably measured (i.e. in the last 420,000 years). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that the average global surface temperatures will continue to increase to between 1.4 centigrade degrees and 5.8 centigrade degrees above 1990 levels, by 2100.
As the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) recognizes, a lack of full scientific certainty about some aspects of climate change is not a reason for delaying an immediate response. Even if greenhouse gas emissions were stabilized instantly at today’s levels, the climate would still continue to change as it adapts to the increased emission of recent decades. Further changes in climate are therefore unavoidable throughout the 21st century and beyond. Action taken now to reduce significantly the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can only lessen the magnitude and rate of climate change.
The task of devising and implementing strategies to adapt to the consequences of climate change will require worldwide collaborative inputs from a wide range of experts, including physical and natural scientists, engineers, social scientists, medical scientists, those in the humanities, business leaders and economists.
For a couple of days in mid November, the “regular” high tides in the Keys will reach new heights. Normal, cyclical events will add to current Sea level rise and produce mass flooding of areas within ~2.1 feet of sea level. (To learn more about the mechanisms behind it, see here.)
In order to help Keys residents (and the rest of our nation and its leaders) visualize what will happen if we don’t take strong, immediate steps to decrease carbon emissions (80% reductions by 2050), GLEE is holding a photo contest to help document what awaits us. See here for contest rules!
**New Report -- Climate Change: Hotter, Faster, Stronger, Sooner (The Telegraph, October 20, 08) According to a report released in the Europe this week, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) got it wrong: Climate change is coming much faster and will be much worse than international scientists were predicting just 18 months ago.
Climate Change: Faster, Stronger, Sooner -- a bleak report compiled by the WWF -- suggests that the most-quoted source on global warming, the IPCC 2007 report, is already out-of-date. By focusing on new data and studies, the WWF is now predicting that global warming is occurring at a pace that is nothing short of shocking. One tipping point, among many, is the dramatic shrinking of Arctic sea ice during the summer months in 2007 and 2008, leading many climatologists to predict that the arctic will be ice free in five years. That would be at least 30 years faster than expected in the former worst-case scenario.
Among the other findings:
- Global sea level rise could more than double from the IPCC's estimate to 1.2 meters (3.94 feet) or more, leading to widespread coastal flooding.
- Natural carbon sinks, such as forests and oceans, are losing their ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere faster than expected.
- Rising temperatures have already led to a major reduction in food crops resulting in losses of 40 million metric tons of grain per year.
- The number and intensity of extreme weather events will increase, including hurricanes, cyclones, and heat waves -- like the one that killed 35,000 Europeans in 2003.
Professor Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, the newly elected Vice Chair of the IPCC, has already endorsed the report. "It is clear that climate change is already having a greater impact than most scientists had anticipated, so it's vital that international mitigation and adaptation responses become swifter and more ambitious."
WWF’s eight page report can be found here.